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Toronto Housing Market Outlook 2023 & 2024, What to Expect Next?

This comprehensive market report delves into the intricacies of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market, providing valuable insights and analysis for the Toronto housing market in 2023 and projections for 2024.

Our detailed examination aims to offer a nuanced perspective, surpassing existing sources.

Toronto Housing Market 2023 Overview

GTA Housing Market Data of All Property Types for 2023

StatisticValueMonthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeAnnual Change
Avg. Sold Price$1,080,5920.2%-3%3%
Transactions3,444-19%-26%10%

1. Market Trends

The GTA housing market has shifted significantly, transforming from a buyer’s market to a robust seller’s market in December 2023.

The average home price in the GTA increased by 3.2% year-over-year to $1,084,692. Notably, detached homes saw a 2.4% increase, reaching $1.42M, reinforcing the seller’s market status.

Toronto Housing Market 2024 1

2. Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)

This month’s SNLR stands at an impressive 89%, a substantial increase from the previous month’s 40%, signaling a market heavily favoring sellers.

The SNLR has historically surpassed the 60% mark in December for 27 out of the past 28 years, underlining the recurring trend.

Toronto Housing Market Dynamics

1. Affordability Challenges

The GTA’s MLS Home Price Index for December 2023, at $1,067,200, shows minimal year-over-year change but a 1.3% decrease from the previous month.

As affordability concerns rise, an increasing number of luxury homes hit the market, reflecting the need for homeowners to sell.

2. Mortgage Landscape

With current mortgage rates at 4.69% for a 5-year fixed term, potential buyers are cautiously evaluating their mortgage affordability.

The hope for relief lies in forecasted interest rate cuts in 2024, potentially influencing the market dynamics.

Toronto Housing Market 2023 Transaction Statistics

1. Sales and Listings

Despite a 10% increase in home sales year-over-year, new listings experienced a drastic 5% decline, contributing to a 19% increase in active listings.

This dynamic, combined with a seller’s market, indicates a challenging environment for buyers.

2. Toronto Housing Market 2023 Recap

The slowest year since 2000, 2023 witnessed 65,982 homes sold in the GTA, with an average selling price of $1,126,604.

The average time on the market was 28 days, emphasizing the cautious approach of buyers.

Housing Market Regional Comparisons in GTA 2023

Cities Avg. Sold Price
Caledon$1,781,733
Halton Hills$1,750,254
Oakville$1,640,068
Rosedale-Moore Park$1,545,067
Stonegate-Queensway$1,549,833
Yonge-Eglinton-Forest Hill$1,425,301
Richmond Hill$1,394,679
East Gwillimbury$1,321,556
Whitchurch-Stouffville$1,314,523
Halton Region$1,312,551
Aurora$1,281,453
York Region$1,291,020
Vaughan$1,245,059
Markham$1,241,173
Brampton$977,085
Mississauga$961,608
Burlington$1,012,778
Oshawa$725,493

1. City of Toronto

Outperforming neighboring cities, the City of Toronto boasts an average selling price of $1,062,914, with a robust 9% year-over-year increase in home sales.

2. Oshawa, Brampton, and Mississauga

Oshawa experienced a 6% decrease in prices, while Brampton and Mississauga faced decreases of 1.5% and 3%, respectively, indicating diverse trends in the GTA.

3. York and Durham Regions

York Region, including Aurora, Markham, Vaughan, and Richmond Hill, witnessed a 1% year-over-year increase, while Durham Region, comprising Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa, and Clarington, saw a 1% decrease.

Toronto Property Type Analysis 2023

1. Detached Homes

StatisticValueMonthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeAnnual Change
Avg. Sold Price$1,417,3231%-2%2%
Transactions1,521-19%-29%13%

Detached homes averaged $1,418,323, reflecting a 2% year-over-year increase, aligning with the overall market trend.

2. Semi-Detached Homes

Semi-detached homes recorded a 2% year-over-year increase, reaching an average price of $1,027,432.

StatisticValueMonthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeAnnual Change
Avg. Sold Price$1,026,432-3%-6%2%
Transactions324-20%-19%36%

3. Freehold Townhouses

These values represent the statistics for GTA townhouses specifically, based on the data for December 2023.

StatisticValueMonthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeAnnual Change
Avg. Sold Price$995,1621%-4%4%
Transactions3692%-12%39%

Experiencing a 4% year-over-year increase, freehold townhouses averaged $996,162.

4. Condo Apartments

StatisticValueMonthly ChangeQuarterly ChangeAnnual Change
Avg. Sold Price$684,525-4%-3%-3%
Transactions944-22%-28%-2%

Condo apartments were the only property type to witness an annual decrease, dropping by 3% to an average price of $682,525.

Looking Forward to Toronto Housing Market 2024

Anticipating relief for Toronto home buyers in 2024, with forecasted interest rate decreases as early as March, potential shifts in market dynamics are on the horizon.

Toronto Housing Market ForecastAverage House Price
2023$1,080,592 or 1.08 Million
2024$1,190,500 or 1.19 Million
2025$1,270,000 or 1.27 Million
Toronto housing market forecast

This in-depth analysis positions our report as an authoritative source for understanding the nuances of the GTA housing market.

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